ARIMA model in predicting of COVID-19 epidemic for the Southern Africa region

Background: Coronavirus pandemic, a serious global public health threat, affects the Southern African countries more than any other country on the continent. The region has become the epicenter of the coronavirus with South Africa accounting for the most cases. To cap the deadly effect caused by the pandemic, we apply a statistical modelling approach to investigate and predict COVID-19 incidence. Methods: Using secondary data on the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases per million for Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) member states from March 5, 2020, to July 15, 2021, we model and forecast the spread of coronavirus in the region. We select the best ARIMA model based on the log-likelihood, AIC, and BIC of the fitted models. Results: The ARIMA (11,1,11) model for the complete data set was finally selected among ARIMA models based upon the parameter test and the Box­Ljung test. The ARIMA (11,1,9) was the best candidate for the training set. A 15-day forecast was also made from the model, which shows a perfect fit with the testing set. Conclusion: The number of new COVID-19 cases per million for the SADC shows a downward trend, but the trend is characterized by peaks from time to time. Tightening up of the preventive measures continuously needs to be adapted in order to eradicate the coronavirus epidemic from the population.

Monkeypox: Scientometrics of 50 years of global scientific publications

Background: Scientific publications related to epidemic diseases are crucial for controlling and treating such diseases. The present study aimed to explore and analyze international publications on monkeypox through scientometric methods. Methods: This review is an applied research conducted using the scientometric method with an analytical meth od All world scientific publications on monkeypox Ivere extractedfrom the Web Of Science (WOS) citation databasefrom Januarv 1972 to May 2022 through an appropriate search strategv. Moreover, Excel and the VOS viewer Bibliometrix package ofthe R programming language were usedfor data analysis. Results: In total, 1130 publications related to monkeypor were extractedfrom the WOS citation database. Most of the publications Mere original papers published in 2010. The United States, Germany, and the Congo had the most publications on monkeypox. The topic clusters ofscientific publications on monkeypox have been in four topic orientations: prevention, epidemiologv, treatment, and immune response. Conclusion: The findings of the present investigation provided a clear picture of the publications and scientific productions of"'orld researchers in the field of monkeypcm Accordingly, researchers and policymakers on monkeypox can better understand the scientific publications on this disease and its dimensions

Points of entry dynamics: understanding the cross-border threats for Ebola virus disease and COVID-19 in Ghana using a logic model approach

Background. The influx of people across the national borders of Ghana has been of interest and concern in the public health and national security community in recent times due to the low capacity for the prevention and management of epidemics and other public health risks. Although the International Health Regulations (IHR) stipulate core public health capacities for designated border facilities such as international airports, seaports, and ground crossings, contextual factors that influence the attainment of effective public health measures and response capabilities remain understudied. Objective. To assess the relationship between contextual factors and COVID-19 procurement to help strengthen infrastructure resources for points of entry (PoE) public health surveillance functions, thereby eliminating gaps in the design, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of pandemicrelated interventions in Ghana. Materials and Methods. This study employed a mixed-methods design, where quantitative variables were examined for relationships and effect size interactions using multiple linear regression techniques and the wild bootstrap technique. Country-level data was sourced from multiple publicly available sources using the social-ecological framework, logic model, and IHR capacity monitoring framework. The qualitative portion included triangulation with an expert panel to determine areas of convergence and divergence. Results. The most general findings were that laboratory capacity and KIA testing center positively predicted COVID-19 procurement, and public health response and airline boarding rule negatively predicted COVID-19 procurement. Conclusion. Contextual understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic and Ebola epidemic is vital for strengthening PoE mitigation measures and preventing disease importation.

Spatial factors for COVID-19 associated community deaths in an urban area of Lusaka, Zambia: an observational study

We retrospectively analyzed spatial factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated community deaths i.e., brought-in-dead (BID) in Lusaka, Zambia, between March and July 2020. A total of 127 cases of BID with geocoordinate data of their houses were identified during the study period. Median interquartile range (IQR) of the age of these cases was 49 (34-70) years old, and 47 cases (37.0%) were elderly individuals over 60 years old. Seventy-five cases (75%) of BID were identified in July 2020, when the total number of cases and deaths was largest in Zambia. Among those whose information regarding their underlying medical condition was available, hypertension was most common (22.9%, 8/35). Among Lusaka's 94 townships, the numbers (median, IQR) of cases were significantly larger in those characterized as unplanned residential areas compared to planned areas (1.0, 0.0-4.0 vs 0.0, 0.0-1.0; p=0.030). The proportion of individuals who require more than 30 minutes to obtain water was correlated with a larger number of BID cases per 105 population in each township (rho=0.28, p=0.006). The number of BID cases was larger in unplanned residential areas, which highlighted the importance of targeted public health interventions specifically to those areas to reduce the total number of COVID-19 associated community deaths in Lusaka. Brought-in-dead surveillance might be beneficial in monitoring epidemic conditions of COVID-19 in such high-risk areas. Furthermore, inadequate access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) might be associated with such distinct geographical distributions of COVID-19 associated community deaths in Lusaka, Zambia.

COVID-19: Virology, Pathogenesis and Potential Therapeutics

Nowadays, the coronavirus epidemic represents a major threat to the human being, represented by great numbers of deaths and wide world life disrupt. COVID-19 virus, is not only representing a threat to the life of human being, but also to the economic activities that nearly stopped in many countries due to the partial to complete closure of life activities in order to control the wide spread of virus infections. In these extraordinary and unprecedented critical times of human being life, it is essential to review and discus the virus epidemic in trial to suggest an idea that might be beneficial to researchers to find out an exit from this dark tunnel and to prevent as possible epidemic recurrence. Many attempts of management protocols and trials all over the world, nearly failed until now to control the wide spread and the high incidence of morbidity and mortality of this viral infection. In this review, we highlight the virology and pathogenesis of epidemic and possible used therapeutics in a simplified and concise form to be easily understood and available for healthcare members and even general population. This might help in control and eradication of the current epidemic

Leçons apprises de la gestion des épidémies de la maladie à virus Ebola en République Démocratique du Congo de 2007 à 2017 / Lessons learned from the management of Ebola outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 2007 to 2017

Contexte et objectifs. La RDC a un écosystème favorable à la survenue des maladies d'origine zoonotique à l'interface homme-animal dont la maladie à virus Ebola (MVE). Face à une létalité reconnue être élevée pour cette dernière, cette étude s'est focalisée sur les épidémies survenues à Mweka (2007 et 2008), à Isiro (2012), à Boende (2014) et à Likati (2017) afin de décrire les différents éléments de réponse mis en place lors de chacune de ces épidémies et identifier ceux qui ont une influence significative sur l'ampleur de l'épidémie. Méthodes. Une étude documentaire analytique sur les données secondaires recueillies lors de la gestion de ces cinq épidémies de la MVE survenues en RDC. Les statistiques descriptives ont été réalisées pour caractériser chaque épidémie. Les analyses univariées de chaque élément de réponse ont été menées en rapport avec la létalité. Résultats. Un total de 422 cas a été enregistré avec 282 décès soit 66,8 % de létalité. La grande majorité de cas se trouve dans la tranche d'âge de 15 à 49 ans. Le sexe féminin est le plus représenté. Parmi tous les éléments de la réponse, dans un modèle univarié, le déploiement du laboratoire mobile (p=0,002), la fonctionnalité des commissions (p=0,001), le déploiement d'une équipe multidisciplinaire et le système de surveillance performant (p=0,001) sont associés significativement à la létalité. Conclusion. Le déploiement rapide du laboratoire mobile sur le terrain, le déploiement des équipes multidisciplinaires, la bonne fonctionnalité des commissions et le système de surveillance fonctionnel ont permis de réduire significativement la létalité

The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (swots) analyses of the Ebola virus

Background: Owing to the extreme virulence and case fatality rate of ebola virus disease (EVD); there had been so much furore; panic and public health emergency about the possible pandemic from the recent West African outbreak of the disease; with attendant handful research; both in the past and most recently. The magnitude of the epidemic of ebola virus disease has prompted global interest and urgency in the discovery of measures to mitigate the impact of the disease. Researchers in the academia and the industry were pressured to only focus on the development of effective and safe ebola virus vaccines; without consideration of the other aspects to this virus; which may influence the success or otherwise of a potential vaccine. The objective of this review was to adopt the SWOT concept to elucidate the biological Strengths;Weaknesses; Opportunities; and Threats to Ebola virus as a pathogen; with a view to understanding and devising holistic strategies at combating and overcoming the scourge of EVD.Method: This systematic review and narrative synthesis utilized Medline; PubMed; Google and other databases to select about 150 publications on ebola and ebola virus disease using text word searches to generate the specific terms. Relevant publications were reviewed and compared; findings were synthesized using a narrative method and summarized qualitatively.Results: Some of the identified strengths of ebola virus include: Ebola virus is an RNA virus with inherent capability to mutate; reassort and recombine to generate mutant or reassortant virulent strains; Ebola virus has a broad cellular tropism; Natural Reservoir of ebola virus is unconfirmed but fruit bats; arthropods; and plants are hypothesized; Ebola virus primarily targets and selectively destroys the immune system; Ebola viruses possess accessory proteins that inhibits the host' immune responses; Secreted glycoprotein (sGP); a truncated soluble protein that triggers immune activation and increased vascular permeability is uniquely associated with Ebola virus only; Ability to effectively cross the species barrier and establish productive infection in humans; non human primates; and other mammals; Ebola virus attacks every part of the human body; The Weaknesses include: Ebola virus transmission and persistence is severely limited by its virulence; Ebola virus essentially requires host encoded protein Niemann-Pick C1 (NPC1) for host's cell' entry; Ebola virus essentially requires host encoded proteins (TIM-1) for cell' entry; Relative abundance of Ebolavirus Nucleoprotein than the other virion components; The Opportunities harnessed by ebola virus include: Lack of infection control practices in African health-care facilities and paucity of health infrastructures; especially in the endemic zones; Permissiveness of circulating Monocytes; Macrophages and dendritic cells in virus mobilization and dissemination; Collection; consumption and trade of wild games (bushmeats); Pertubation and drastic changes in forest ecosystems present opportunities for Ebola virus; Use of dogs in hunting predisposes man and animals to inter-species contact; Poverty; malnutrition; crowding; social disorder; mobility and political instability; Ease of travel and aviation as potentials for global spread; Possible mechanical transmission by arthropod vectors; No vaccines or therapeutics are yet approved for human treatment; The Threats to ebola virus include: Avoidance of direct contact with infected blood and other bodily fluids of infected patient; Appropriate and correct burial practices; Adoption of barrier Nursing; Improved surveillance to prevent potential spread of epidemic; Making Available Rapid laboratory equipment and procedures for prompt detection (ELISA; Western Blot; PCR); Sterilization or disinfection of equipment and safe disposal of instrument; Prompt hospitalization; isolation and quarantine of infected individual; Active contact tracing and monitoring; among others.Conclusion: The identified capacities and gaps presented in this study are inexhaustive framework to combat the ebola virus. To undermine and overcome the virus; focus should be aimed at strategically decreasing the identified strengths and opportunities; while increasing on the weaknesses of; and threats to the virus

Equipping Educators to Address HIV and AIDS: A Review of Selected Teacher Education Initiatives

Teacher educators; school principals and teachers are potentially well positioned to play a pivotal role in changing the course of the HIV and AIDS epidemic. The purpose of this article is to focus on a spectrum of educational initiatives in sub-Saharan Africa and South Africa which are designed to equip educators to be informed about; and to manage; HIV and AIDS in their personal and professional lives. Criteria for inclusion in the review are that the HIV and AIDS education endeavours must be operational (already functioning) and experience-based (have been experienced first-hand by the author). The review begins with a reflective account of two major undertakings: (a) an e-learning course for teacher educators in sub-Saharan Africa and (b) South Africa's Higher Education HIV/AIDS Programme. Thereafter; the review considers a range of academic pursuits currently involving inservice school teachers and principals studying at a South African university. These include (a) two Advanced Certificates in Education; (b) doctoral studies; and (c) a new short learning programme. In reflecting on these various innovative but 'do-able' offerings; the article concludes that experiential and context-specific action-based learning and research into the social and educational aspects of HIV and AIDS can contribute to breaking the silence and reducing stigma while; at the same time; equipping educators to provide care and support for infected and affected learners and colleagues

Antibiotic Prescribing Patterns in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit

An outbreak of invasive candidiasis in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) of the Dr George Mukhari Academic Hospital in Ga-Rankuwa necessitated evaluation of the antibiotic prescribing practices in the unit. A selective randomised sample of 100 patients was followed up over a nine-month period to evaluate prescribing patterns. The existing antibiotic policy was used to compare the prescription practices and use of antibiotics. The frequency of use; number of antibiotics per patient and duration of use were documented. Of the 100 patients followed; 95 were prescribed intravenous antibiotics. All prescribed antibiotics for 77 patients are listed in the antibiotic policy. Nineteen different antibiotics were prescribed; and 11 of the 19 prescribed antibiotics appear in the antibiotic policy. Most patients received more than two antibiotics during their stay; as the average number of antibiotics used per patient during the study period was 3.4. The average duration of use for all antibiotics; except cefepime and ceftriaxone; was for longer than seven days. Although antibiotics were used according to the ward protocol in the majority of patients; deviations from the protocol were associated with patients' clinical condition and/or results from blood cultures. The duration of antibiotic use needs to be monitored to prevent unnecessary prolonged use; as in this investigation. An antibiotic policy may be useful to guide and measure rational antibiotic therapy in a NICU

Political and Socio-Economic Instability: does it have a Role in the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa?

Many sub-Saharan African countries are confronted by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. This article reviews academic literature in the social sciences and health to discover why HIV/AIDS has become an epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa and not in other parts of the world. This was studied by examining the social determinants of diminishment of tradition and social cohesion in terms of political; social and economic problems. Four countries in this region were selected for this case study; namely South Africa; Botswana; Uganda and Zimbabwe. The findings showed that instability in socio-economic and political aspects in these nations was responsible for creating a suitable environment for the spread of HIV/AIDS infection. This paper concludes by using the theories of collective action/responsibility and social cohesion to hypothesise that the breakdown of social ties due to various kinds of conflicts and unrest is one of the main contributors to the HIV/AIDS epidemic

Appraisal of the inherent socio-demographic dynamics of HIV/AIDS epidemic in four districts of South-Western Uganda

Although HIV prevalence in Uganda is much lower than it once was; AIDS is still claiming many lives each year with clear signs of escalating rural epidemics. The objective of this study was to appraise the socio-economic and demographic dynamics of HIV/AIDS epidemic in South-Western Uganda. Data were collected with standard closed ended semi-structured questionnaires self-administered to consenting; 605 HIV/AIDS patients; selected using the multistage random sampling technique; logistic linear regression; randomized block design and Pearson's Chi square test (a=0.01) were used to analyse the data obtained. The duration of carriage was inversely proportional (r=-0.94) to population of HIV/AIDS patients surveyed. There were 98.2 Bantu (55.5 Banyankole and 22.6 Baganda); 77.5 females and 22.5 males; more widows (38.0) than married (35.5). HIV/AIDS prevalence generally decreased with increasing level of education. The highest (66.7). HIV/AIDS prevalence generally decreased with increasing level of education. The highest (66.7) HIV/AIDS prevalence was recorded in Bushenyi; followed by 58.4 in Masaka; 57.9 in Mbarara and 53.3 in Rukungiri. Rukungiri patients above 60 years of age harboured 57.1 HIV/AIDS followed by 45.5 among Masaka patients aged 11 - 20 years and 40 among Mbarara patients less than 10 years of age. HIV/AIDS prevalence was significantly (p0.05) dependent on socio-economic and demographic factors of surveyed population. Therefore socio-economic and demographic factors underlie HIV/AIDS prevalence in this region. Observed differences in prevalence of HIV/AIDS between the surveyed districts wereremarkable and warrant regular surveillance for updated disease epidemiology. Education can debunk the generally misconstrued rolesof social; economic and demographic factors in the spread of HIV/AIDS

Perception of HIV/AIDS Among the Igbo of Anambra State; Nigeria

Perception is fundamental in the fight against stigmatization of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV). Perception generally influences discriminatory attitudes towards PLHIV which exacerbates their problems and quickens the degeneration of the disease from HIV to AIDS. This study examined the Anambra people's perception and knowledge of HIV/AIDS with the goal of creating knowledge on these issues in order to design effective intervention programmes towards the reduction of social stigmatization associated with the pandemic. The study was carried out in Idemmili North and Oyi local government areas of Anambra State. Qualitative and quantitative methodologies were used to elicit information from respondents who were adult males and females of 18 years and above. The research instruments were questionnaires and in-depth interview schedule. Questionnaires were administered on 1000 respondents while 13 people were interviewed in-depth. Analysis of quantitative data were conducted by using the Statistical package for Social Sciences. Univariate analysis in the form of frequencies were conducted which generated the distribution of respondents across the research variables. Furthermore; multivariate analysis were conducted to test the hypotheses and sought for relationships among variables. The qualitative data were reported in themes based on the research objectives and were analysed jointly with the quantitative data. The findings were that majority of the respondents viewed HIV/AIDS as a disease that afflict immoral people and as a punishment from God. Only a handful of them saw the disease as a disease that could afflict anybody. Also; many of the respondents said that AIDS is real but showed a low level of knowledge. It was further indicated that there were significant relationships between educational level; sex; occupation; income influence perception and peoples' reactions to HIV positive status of a relative while there were no significant relationships between these variables and knowledge of HIV/AIDS. It was concluded that these negative perceptions were as a result of the people's low level of knowledge and cultural belief systems; which see a strange illness as punishment from God for disobedience. Furthermore; the fact that most of the socio-economic characteristics of the respondents had significant relationship with perception and reaction to HIV was an indication that most people in the study area had a uniform perception. It was also an indication that government HIV/AIDS awareness programmes were not effective. It was recommended that strategies for effective HIV educational programme should be sought and carried out in the study area. Effective intervention programme have the power to change behaviours and would likely change the people's negative perception and low level of knowledge of HIV/AIDS; thereby reducing stigmatization of people living with HIV/AIDS

Pattern and spatial distribution of plague in Lushoto; north-eastern Tanzania

A review of plague records from 1986 to 2002 and household interviews were carried out in the plague endemic villages to establish a pattern and spatial distribution of the disease in Lushoto district; Tanzania. Spatial data of households and village centres were collected and mapped using a hand held Global Positioning System and Geographical Information System. During the 16-year period; there were 6249 cases of plague of which 5302 (84.8) were bubonic; 391 (6.3)septicaemic; and 438 (7.0) pneumonic forms. A total of 118 (1.9) cases were not categorized. Females and individuals aged 7-18 years old were the most affected groups accounting for 54.4(95CI: 52.4-56.0) and 47.0(95CI: 45- 49) of all reported cases; respectively. Most cases were found in villages at high altitudes (1700-1900m); and there was a decline in case fatality rate (CFR) in areas that experienced frequent outbreaks. Overall; there was a reduction in mean reporting time (from symptoms onset to admission) to an average of 1.35 days (95CI: 1.30-1.40) over the years; although this remained high among adult patients (18 years). Despite the decrease in the number of cases and CFR over the years; our findings indicate that Lushoto district experiences human plague epidemic every year; with areas at high altitudes being more prone to outbreaks. The continued presence of plague in this focus warrants further studies. Nonetheless; our findings provide a platform for development of an epidemic preparedness plan to contain future outbreaks

Laboratory Capacity in 2012 for Diagnosis of Epidemic Prone Diseases in the Context of Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response in the WHO African Region

This paper provides the status of laboratory capacity for diagnosis of epidemic prone diseases in the context of Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) in 46 countries in the WHO African Region as of end of 2012 through self-assessment questionnaires. The findings from this assessment revealed that 98 (45/46) of the countries have the capacity for isolation; identification and antimicrobial susceptibility testing of common bacterial causes of enteric diseases and meningitis in the Region. Forty three countries performed standard enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for confirming suspected cases of pathogens such as Morbillivirus responsible of measles through the detection of specific immunoglobulin M (IgM) and 30 countries had at least polymerase chain reaction (PCR) capacity for detection of influenza viruses. However; the number of countries with an appropriate department of virology providing comprehensive diagnostic services is still limited especially for dangerous viral pathogens requiring high-level containment facilities. The collection and analysis of critical information on the existing diagnostic capacity were used to propose key recommendations for strengthening the laboratory confirmation of outbreaks in line with the IDSR Strategy and the International Health Regulations (IHR; 2005). The proposed key actions were focused in the following areas: high-level advocacy for country ownership; human resource development; laboratory space and equipment; quality assurance and laboratory networking

Neisseria meningitidis du sérogroupe A clone II-1 responsable de la récente épidemie de méningite survenue au Mali

Le clone III-1 de Neisseria meningitidis sérogroupe A était inconnu en Afrique jusqu'en 1988. Depuis cette date; nous assistons à une vague épidémique secouant la plupart des pays de l'Afrique centrale et de l'Afrique de l'Est. Nous avons montré une étude des protéines de membrane externe; que la souche de méningocoque responsable de l'épidémie du Mali depuis 1994 est le clone III-I